By Julia Lagano, political reporter

All eyes are on Virginia as the state gears up for a high-stake gubernatorial election this November. Often viewed as a bellwether, Virginia’s off-year election offers both Democrats and Republicans an early litmus test on national political trends and voter sentiment heading into 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential race.
Regardless of the outcome, this race will be historic; Virginia will elect its first female governor. This marks a milestone in U.S. political history, given the resistance to female leadership at the national level in past presidential elections. The winner will also help shape the state’s ideological direction.
Since 1977, Virginia has a tradition of electing governors from the opposite party of the sitting president, with the exception of 2013. This pattern has made the state a testing ground for political trends, fundraising patterns, campaign tactics, and future party strategies. The state’s ever-shifting demographics, particularly in Northern Virginia, have turned it into one of the country’s most watched battlegrounds.
Although the Virginia primaries are set for June 17, both major parties have officially confirmed their candidates: Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger.
Earle-Sears is already a trailblazer in Virginia politics. She is the first woman to serve as lieutenant governor and the first woman of color to hold a statewide office in Virginia. If she wins this race, she would be the first Black woman elected governor of any U.S. state. Additionally, it would be the first time Virginia has elected back-to-back Republican governors since Jim Gilmore in 1997.
Born in Kingston, Jamaica, Sears immigrated to the United States at the age of six and grew up in the Bronx, New York. After receiving her Master’s in organizational leadership from Regent University, Sears served as an electrician in the United States Marine Corps from 1983 to 1986.
Sears entered politics in 2001, when she won a seat in the Virginia House of Delegates by upsetting 10-term Democratic incumbent Billy Robinson. In 2018, she ran for U.S. Senate but lost in the Republican primary. She has served on the Advisory Committee on Women’s Veterans to the Secretary of Veterans, as the vice president of the Virginia Board of Education, and as the co-chair of the African American Committee on the U.S. Census Bureau.
A staunch conservative, Sears brands herself as a someone who embodies traditional Republican values. Her platform focuses heavily on education reform, economic growth, law and order, the Second Amendment, and social conservatism, specifically reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ policies.
She has closely aligned herself with Donald Trump, referring to herself as “Trump in heels.” This association may help her among the GOP, but she risks alienating moderate voters, particularly women. Democrats are framing her as too extreme for Virginia as they hope to replicate their wins from 2018 and 2020.
In contrast, Abigail Spanberger, is running as a centrist Democrat focused on bipartisanship. Born in New Jersey and raised in Short Pump, Virginia, Spanberger holds an MBA from Purdue University. After graduating, she briefly worked as a postal inspector with a focus on money laundering and narcotics.
From 2006 to 2014, Spanberger served as a Case Officer for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), working on international security and counterterrorism operations. After leaving the CIA, she was appointed to the Virginia Fair Housing Board in 2017 by former Governor Terry McAuliffe. In 2018, she was elected to represent Virginia’s 7th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives; she served until she announced her candidacy for governor in November 2023.
Spanberger’s platform centers on economic development, education, reproductive rights, environmental protection, and public safety. Like Sears, she is prioritizing veterans’ affairs, as Virginia has one of the nation’s largest military and veteran populations.
To broaden her appeal, Spanberger has distanced herself from the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. She’s known for working across party lines and pushing for bipartisan legislation such as the Transactional Fentanyl Prevention Act, American Food Supply Chain Resiliency Act, and Supporting Federal Employees in the National Guard and Reserves Act.
“Virginia is seen as ‘purple,’ and this result can be viewed as where the nation is heading as to what’s happening in Virginia.” – John Tedesco, Director of Virginia’s School of Communication and expert in political communication.
Historically, Virginia has leaned Republican. Between 1952 and 2004, the state voted for every conservative presidential candidate, except for the 1964 election of President Lyndon B. Johnson. However, the rapid growth in Northern Virginia during the 1990s shifted the political landscape. Since 2008, Democrats have won Virginia in five consecutive presidential elections, though by narrow margins. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump by only five points.

Virginia comprises a unique blend of rural conservatism, urban liberalism, and suburban swing voters. The state has about 320,000 full-time federal employees, with 190,000 federal jobs are based there. This job sector constitutes a significant portion of Virginia’s workforce, and the recent news has become a major issue in this year’s race.
In April, CNN reported that more than 121,000 workers have been laid off since the beginning of Trump’s second term by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). These cuts have highlighted Virginia’s vulnerable economy and made job security a central campaign issue.
Compared to a Presidential General Election, voter turnout for gubernatorial elections is significantly lower. Last November, Virginia’s voter turnout was 73%, the highest on the East Coast. However, that percentage drops considerably in state elections. Virginia state elections attracts about 42-50% of voters. In 2013, approximately 43% of registered voters cast a ballot.
In 2021 there were record breaking numbers, with 55% of Virginians voting, the highest turnout for a gubernatorial election in about quarter century. Virginia passed 14 bills to improve voter turnout, such as 45 days of no-excuse early voting, expanding identification options, and designating Election Day a statewide holiday. Because of the state’s unique election schedule, these races are more dependent on voter enthusiasm, local issues, and campaign mobilization.
“I have only voted in presidential elections.Until now, I never realized that [the governor’s race] is held in off-years or the impact it is has on the nation.” – Alana Peyton, voter in Hanover County
To reach voters like Peyton, both campaigns are using different media strategies. Sears is relying more on traditional media, TV, radio and in-person events, to engage more traditional and older electorates. Her messaging places a large emphasis on patriotism, faith, and tradition.
On the other hand, Spanberger is embracing a digital-first approach, using platforms such as Instagram and TikTok to connect with the younger generation and tech-savvy voters. Because she is catering to a younger demographic, Sears has begun to label her as an extreme left winged, or “woke” politician.
Fundraising is crucial in elections, and this one is no exception. Expected to be Virginia’s most expensive gubernatorial campaign, Spanberger has raised around $16 million since launching her campaign in 2023. In the first quarter of 2025, she has raised $6.7 million, a record-breaking number for the first quarter of an election year. Comparatively, Sears has raised around $3.1 million, a record for the Virginia GOP.
Sears’ alignment with Donald Trump could be seen as a strength and a liability. It cements her position with Trump loyalists, it risks alienating moderates and swing voters. “There are advantages for those in strong support of Trump,” Tedesco said, “But that is not going to win over any liberal voters, and it may even scare away moderate voters.”
Voters understand what this election could mean for the future of the U.S. “[The political climate] is very tense right now,” Peyton said, “It feels like you are on one extreme or the other. Which is really frustrating because politicians should be able to work with their cohorts to improve our country as a whole, not just serve one group.”
Not only is this race highlighting key national issues like education curriculum, reproductive rights, economic development, and public safety. It is also confronting a bigger question: is there is any bipartisanship left in the United States?
“In the past year, I have become much more in tune with national politics,” Peyton said, “I plan on voting in the [gubernatorial and local] elections because ultimately, change starts at the bottom.”
Editor’s Note: Dr. John Tedesco is the Director of the Virginia Tech School of Communication which publishes The News Feed NRV.


